Did anyone seriously think that Donald Trump was going to emerge this morning as winner of the Nobel Peace Prize? First, there were the mechanics. Nominations for the prize closed on 31 January, at which point Trump was only 11 days into his second term and there was hardly a glint of hope in Gaza. The prize committee will have met for the last time around a week ago, when there was still doubt as to whether Hamas would accept this deal. Of necessity the committee will have had to make its decision a few days before the announcement because certain formalities will have had to be undertaken, such as checking whether the recipient actually wants the prize.

For those reasons, next year was always going to be a more appropriate time for Trump to win the prize. But even then, don’t hold your

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