Ilia Topuria (red gloves) fights Charles Oliveira (blue gloves) during UFC 317 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 261 -- also known as UFC on ESPN+ 119 -- at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET (both on ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Oliveira (35-11-0) | Gamrot (25-3-0)

Oliveira suffered a Round 1 KO/TKO loss to Ilia Topuria in a championship bout at UFC 317, and he has dropped 3 of his past 5 bouts. He has had finishes in 6 of his past 8 bouts, although 2 of the previous 3 fights have ended up going the distance. He suffered a split-decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300, before bouncing back with a unanimous-decision win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309.

Gamrot posted a unanimous-decision win over Ludovit Klein last time out in a Fight Night March 31 at the UFC Apex. He has won 4 of his past 5 fights, with the past 3 outings -- and 6 of the past 7 -- going the distance. Since a loss in his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze via split decision, he has won 8 of his previous 10 outings.

The 35-year-old Oliveira has a 3.5-inch reach advantage over the southpaw Gamrot. Oliveira has an ever-so-slight 3.41-to-3.35 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is also just a little more accurate at 63.0%, to 59.85% for the Polish fighter. Gamrot is stronger on takedowns, posting a 5.33 takedown average, to just 2.23 for Oliveira. The Brazilian fighter is better on the ground, posting a 2.63 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Oliveira -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Gamrot -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 3.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +165 | No -225)

UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

OLIVEIRA (-110) is worth a look in this bout in Rio against Gamrot. The difference here is Oliveira's 3.5-inch reach advantage, as he'll use it to push and pull the Polish fighter in and out. He'll also likely try to get Gamrot to the ground, trying to use his tremendous advantage in the submission category.

Oliveira has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 fights, while Gamrot has needed the judges to decide a winner in 3 in a row and 6 of the past 7. If you want to get specific for a much better payday, consider OLIVEIRA BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+650) for a chance to multiply your payout by 6½ times.

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Over/Under

YES (+165): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is worth a look at plus money if you don’t want to pick a winner but still want some action and good value.

If you want a little wiggle room, backing OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even money is still a solid play.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 261: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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