I’ve always thought of playing quarterback as making a series of split-second risk-reward calculations. At its core, throwing a pass amounts to making your best evaluation of the defense, determining the likelihood of success for a given throw based on that evaluation, determining the yield of success if it works, and determining the downsides to failure (with the biggest failure being an interception). Oh, and you have to make all these calculations in like one millisecond, because much more than that and the opportunity has passed. Easy, right?

In situations when you have to process so quickly, you have to rely on your priors, or the things that you already know. An easy prior when facing the New York Jets is that cornerback Sauce Gardner is one of the league’s best and has been for som

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