Ileft Ukraine for the last time on January 1, 2024 . At the time, I carried deep doubts about Kyiv’s ability to sustain the fight. I had seen the strain firsthand, having served alongside Ukrainian units, and I wondered how long the country could endure. Now, as the war stands on the threshold of 2026 , my perspective has changed. Ukraine has not broken. It has adapted.

Russia’s 2025 summer push is running out of dry ground. Within weeks, eastern Ukraine will sink into rasputitsa , the season of mud that clogs farm tracks, floods trench lines, and turns every off-road move into a recovery operation. Historically, both armies slow their maneuvering until the steppe freezes solid by late December. Logistics grind down , and drones struggle in wind, rain, and lo

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