The Buffalo Bills get a road matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football. Buffalo’s looking to bounce back from a loss to the New England Patriots , entering this game with a 4-1 record. Atlanta’s struggled overall, posting a 2-2 record through four games.

The Bills feature one of the best offenses in the NFL. I don’t truly need to go through the numbers on this. They’re near the top of the NFL in most metrics, and they’ve consistently found offensive success this season.

The key to this play is the positive regression for the Falcons on defense. They rank 20th in points allowed (.413) per play and 16th in points allowed (21.5) per game. Atlanta also ranks fifth in the NFL in yards allowed (4.7) per play.

The metrics suggest that the Falcons' defense is playing better

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