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New Jersey delivered some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election. Now, those shifts are setting the table for this year’s hard-fought governor’s race — and big questions nationally about where communities like these are going in future elections.

For starters, President Donald Trump’s 2024 surge among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area caught much of the political world by surprise. But questions remain about whether Republicans can sustain this coalition long term.

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An analysis of municipal-level election results in New Jersey, coupled with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, provides a detailed demographic and geographic snapshot of

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