IEA Raises Its Estimate for Record Oil Oversupply in 2026

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(Bloomberg) — A record oversupply of oil will be bigger than previously estimated and the excess is already starting to build up on ocean going tankers, the International Energy Agency said.

World oil supply will exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year, an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, the IEA said in its latest monthly report. Its predicted surplus is up roughly 18% from last month’s estimate, as the OPEC+ alliance continues to revive output and the outlook for the group’s rivals in 2026 strengthens.

While inventories have piled at a brisk clip of 1.9 million barrels a day this year, their impact on prices has been mitigated by China scooping up the majority, according to the report. That’s beginning t