India's domestic two-wheeler (2W) market is heading towards a structural stagnation even as electric two-wheelers (E-2Ws) accelerate on a secular growth path, noted a research report by Emkay Global Financial Services. The brokerage expects that after a brief, policy-driven boost in demand, the conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheeler segment will enter a period of subdued expansion.

"We expect the domestic 2W industry to stagnate at 3% CAGR over FY26E-35E. This is likely to coincide with the secular customer-preference shift toward E-2Ws, with volumes expected to rise 13-15x over FY25-35E," noted the report.

Following the near-term GST cut-led demand spike, the sector is expected to lose momentum as the effects of policy normalisation and market saturation set in. The r

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