Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

A disorganized tropical disturbance is plodding across the stretch of ocean from Africa to the Caribbean. Atmospheric conditions do not look conducive for it to develop much before it reaches the islands – most likely the Windward Islands – next Sunday or Monday. Once it reaches the western Caribbean later next week, however, some computer forecasts predict the pattern will allow the system to organize and strengthen.

The possibilities range from no development at all to a strong hurricane. Taking all the credible forecasts together, the odds of the system developing into at least a tropical depression in the Caribbean over the next 10 days are about 20-30%, and the odds of it strengthening into a strong storm are less than 10%.

The ex

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