Among soccer nerds, it's generally accepted that we can start making confident statements about team performance once we hit the 10-game mark of the Premier League season.

It's a random, low-scoring sport where conversion rates fluctuate massively from game to game, and the same is true for individual and team-level performances. Throw in unbalanced, lopsided schedules from team to team that don't even out until we get to the end of the season, and there are so many ways you can get out over your skis by drawing too many conclusions before we get to Halloween.

But we're only a couple of weeks away from putting our costumes on, so we've definitely learned some new things about the Premier League already. The question is: How do we figure out what's real and what's not?

To try to

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