Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) waves to the Oklahoma Sooners fans after he runs for a first down during the second half at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

The No. 17 Texas Longhorns (4-2, 1-1 SEC) and Kentucky Wildcats (2-3, 0-3) clash in a Week 8 SEC showdown Saturday. Kickoff from Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky, is set for 7 p.m. (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Texas vs. Kentucky odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Longhorns handed the No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners their first loss of the season Saturday, winning 23-6 and covering as a 3-point neutral-field favorite with the Under (44.5) hitting. Despite that, Texas is just 1-2 against Power 4 foes, having lost by 8 to the Florida Gators and by 7 to the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Longhorns are led by QB Arch Manning, who has 1,317 passing yards and 17 total touchdowns.

The Wildcats lost 35-14 to the No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs Oct. 4, failing to cover as a 20-point road underdog. The Over (48.5) cashed. They have yet to pick up a conference win and are just 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in SEC contests. Coming off a bye, Kentucky will look to snap a 2-game losing streak. RB Seth McGowan has been its most impressive player, with 431 rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns.

The Cats lost 31-14 to the Longhorns Nov. 23, 2024, the last time these programs met. They covered as an 18-point road underdog, though, as the Under (47) hit.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Texas at Kentucky odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:46 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Texas -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Kentucky +375 (bet $100 to win $375)
  • Against the spread: Texas -12.5 (-115) | Kentucky +12.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Texas at Kentucky picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas 30, Kentucky 14

Moneyline

PASS.

Texas (-500) is far too expensive to consider here. As for Kentucky (+375), it hasn’t shown nearly enough to suggest it can pull off the top-25 upset. Avoid this play.

Against the spread

BET TEXAS -12.5 (-115).

With their top-15 win over the Sooners in Week 7, the Longhorns may finally be picking up some rhythm. Manning looked sharp and completed 21 of 27 passes as the Longhorns finished without a single turnover. Texas is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.

Texas can also shut down the run. It ranks fifth (2.5) in opponent yards per rush attempt. The only way Kentucky kept its game close against Ole Miss was on the ground, finishing with 172 yards on 37 carries. It didn’t cover in its other 2 SEC contests. Expect a similar game plan, just without the success.

Considering those trends and how the game plan should fare for both sides, back TEXAS -12.5 (-115).

Over/Under

BET OVER 43.5 (-110).

Kentucky's defense has been atrocious this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 O/U on the year, mainly because they’ve given up 30 or more points in 3 of their last 4 contests. Having tallied at least 13 points in every game, if those 2 trends continue, the Over is the better option.

The Longhorns are rolling with Manning and have scored at least 23 points in 4 of their last 5 games, going 2-1 O/U in their last 3. Texas has allowed 17.5 points per game over its 2 SEC contests. Take OVER 43.5 (-110).

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Texas Longhorns at Kentucky Wildcats odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Nathan Beighle, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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