Aussie borrowers have been warned a November rate cut is not a done deal, with the Reserve Bank told to keep an eye on the inflation fight.

Unemployment lifted from 4.3 per cent to 4.5 per cent in September, sparking optimism in markets that the RBA will move on Melbourne Cup day.

That jobless jump followed signs of rising prices and cost pressure in the construction and services sectors.

It raises the risk that the central bank could end up stuck between needing to cool down the economy and slow inflation; or rev up the engine to avoid the jobs market stalling.

But the RBA won’t hit the panic button yet, as governor Michelle Bullock’s board has sought to run a steady ship through 2025, even amid occasional volatility in data.

Consumer price numbers due next week will be a key factor

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