Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the federal government shutdown will last about six weeks, as partisan gridlock shows little sign of easing.

While odds on these markets don’t serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.

According to Kalshi’s market data, traders on average expect the shutdown to continue for roughly 44 days.

Traders are pricing in a 44% probability that the shutdown lasts until Nov. 15, and about a one-in-three chance it continues past Nov. 20.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $12.7 million.

Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are betting the government shutdown will end around mid-November.

The largest share of traders, about

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