Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

The odds that the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean will organize and strengthen are now in the high range. The National Hurricane Center is still painting a large potential development zone across much of the Caribbean, indicating uncertainty about where the development will occur.

The disturbance is already producing winds near 40 mph, so the system is likely to become Tropical Storm Melissa when it organizes a full circulation or soon thereafter.

The upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive to development by later today, and the heat content of the water under the system will increase as it progresses west, which should encourage the system to organize and strengthen.

Around Wednesday, there is a fork in the road. One gr

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