Holiday Spending Expected to Rise 3.5-4% Despite Consumer Anxiety and Tariff Pressures

Wells Fargo forecast points to decent but below-average retail season as inflation concerns and early shopping reshape traditional patterns

American consumers are heading into the holiday season with conflicting signals—worried about their economic prospects yet still willing to open their wallets when it matters most. A recently released Wells Fargo Economics report projects holiday sales will increase between 3.5 percent and 4 percent compared to last year, a respectable gain that nonetheless falls short of the 4.7 percent long-run average recorded since 1992. The forecast captures the tension defining this year’s retail landscape. Through August, sales in core holiday categories—excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants—are up nearly 3 percent from year-end 2024, matching pr