This column was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
In the broadest sense, political campaigns resemble military operations with mission goals, strategic plans to achieve them, logistical support and tactical maneuvers to weaken opposing forces.
However, as Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke observed in 1871,“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.”
In other words, once a political campaign is launched, it can be undermined by events that even the most comprehensive strategy could not anticipate. The “X factor,” as some have dubbed it, can dominate the outcome.
Notable examples abound, including Richard Nixon’s sweaty image during his 1960 television debate with a cool and telegenic Jo