The first signs were weeks ago from a bloke you will only have heard of if you live in Tamworth. The name's Coxhead, Steve Coxhead. He's a canary - and not just because he wore yellow at the last prepoll for the Nationals at the federal election in May.

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He's been a National for years and run the local branch for a year and a bit. Then, on October 8, out of the green, he quit.

He's a canary because he was the first National to drop off the perch to join One Nation, just like those canaries in coal mines alerting miners to the presence of noxious gases.

If we'd been paying any attention, we might have known that this was only the beginning.

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