Can we tell which starting pitchers are going to get injured? Do we have any sort of reliable metric for that?

Sure, past injury can be a predictor of future injury, but it's not a particularly good one. We sometimes treat it as foolproof. Zack Wheeler , Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were some of the safest bets to make it through the 2025 season unscathed, but they didn't. Bryan Woo and Jacob deGrom were supposed to have no chance of remaining healthy, but they did.

The pitching motion is an unnatural one, and done with the repetition and force required to succeed at the major league level, it's only a matter of time before injury is the result. So is predicting when and where one will arise a fool's errand? Should we even bother to try?

Early rankings: C | 1B |

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