Updated Friday 9:30 a.m. ET

It's increasingly likely that Jamaica will experience long-duration impacts from likely Hurricane Melissa like no storm they've encountered in modern times. Even if Melissa's strongest winds stay offshore, and there's no guarantee that that will happen, three or four days of relentless, heavy rain and gusty winds appear likely.

People should be in a safe spot by the end of tomorrow and be prepared to stay for at least three days.

Tropical Storm Melissa is still ragged, but the computer analysis is that the atmospheric pattern over the storm is slowly becoming more conducive for it to organize and strengthen—the hostile upper winds are gradually letting up. It will take at least another day or a day and a half to pull itself together, but by tomorrow afternoon

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