Carney’s first budget won’t bring down the government, but the second one might

If anyone believes the Liberal government in Ottawa could fall after it releases its first budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney, they’re dreaming.

The political arithmetic, and the political will, simply aren’t there for the Liberals — who have a minority government — to lose a confidence vote on the budget, expected Nov. 4.

That’s because no one wants an election right now, especially the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. Even the Conservatives, who might claim they’re eager to bring down the government, probably don’t want one either, just seven months after the last contest in April.

The math alone makes a Liberal defeat unlikely. The party is just three seats shy of a majority, meaning it won’t take much to cobble together a few votes from the opposition benches to pass a budget.

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