Tropical Storm Melissa is moving slowly northwest in the Caribbean Sea, with sustained winds nearing 70 mph. As of Friday evening, the storm was located about 165 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Forecasters warn that life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are likely across southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and Jamaica through the weekend and into early next week.

Meteorologists anticipate that wind shear around Melissa will decrease on Saturday, creating conditions for significant strengthening. The storm is expected to remain slow-moving in the Caribbean, allowing it to take advantage of warm waters and potentially intensify into a major hurricane. Hurricane conditions are forecast for southern Haiti on Saturday, with impacts reaching Jamaica later that day and continuing into Sunday morning.

By Sunday, Melissa is projected to approach Jamaica as a major hurricane, with winds exceeding 110 mph. The storm is expected to linger near the island through at least Tuesday, leading to heavy rainfall that could result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides. Damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge may also cause extensive damage, particularly to Jamaica's energy infrastructure, potentially resulting in widespread power outages.

This storm could be the strongest to impact Jamaica in over 35 years, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 4 storm that struck in 1988. Due to Melissa's slow movement and its projected path from the south, the impacts could be more severe than those experienced during past hurricanes.

Hurricane warnings are currently in effect for Jamaica, while hurricane watches are in place for Haiti’s southwestern peninsula, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are expected in parts of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, 6 to 12 inches of rain is anticipated across the rest of Haiti and into the southern Dominican Republic, raising the risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

After passing north of Jamaica, Melissa is expected to cross southern Cuba and reach the central or southern Bahamas by Wednesday or Thursday before turning northwest toward the central Atlantic later next week. The National Hurricane Center has indicated that preparations should be completed quickly, as strong winds and heavy rains could begin affecting Jamaica as early as Friday or Saturday.