Canada's immigration system is facing a significant crisis due to a sharp rise in visa and permit refusals across all temporary entry categories. Immigration experts are raising alarms that automated tools and recent policy changes are replacing thorough, individual assessments. This situation has led to an increase in judicial reviews, as applicants challenge decisions they consider "generic and unreasonable" in the federal court of Canada.

Pushkar Prehar, a Canadian immigration lawyer, noted a "sharp increase in refusals across all temporary entry categories," which include visitor visas, work permits, study permits, and startup visa applications. Kubeir Kamal, a regulated Canadian immigration consultant, described the current scenario as a "seismic shift," with the refusal rate for temporary resident applications surpassing 50% in recent times.

Experts attribute this crisis to the growing reliance on automated processing systems, such as Chinook. Many refusal letters appear to be based on generic templates, lacking specific references to individual applicants' circumstances. Kamal highlighted that the Officer’s Decision Notes often contain vague statements like, "I am not satisfied that the applicant will leave Canada at the end of their authorized stay," without addressing the applicant's unique situation.

A policy shift by the Canadian government aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents has also contributed to stricter assessments. This has resulted in a notable decline in arrivals. Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows that from January to August 2025, about 278,900 fewer individuals entered Canada compared to the same period in 2024. The most significant drop was among international students, with new study permit holders decreasing by nearly 60%.

In August 2025, only 45,380 new study permits were issued, down from 79,795 in August 2024. Similarly, the number of new temporary foreign workers fell by 146,395 during the same period. The IRCC is expected to announce further reductions in the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

For applicants facing unfair refusals, Kamal advises obtaining the full Global Case Management System (GCMS) notes to understand the decision-making process. He explained that if the GCMS notes reveal procedural unfairness or unreasonable decisions, a judicial review in the federal court may be necessary. The federal court is projected to see 36,400 immigration filings in 2025, marking a 47% increase from the previous year.

Prehar emphasized the importance of judicial oversight, stating, "The court checks if the decision was reasonable; if not, the court sets aside the decision and remits the matter to a different officer for a fresh decision." He illustrated this with a case involving an Indian student whose study permit was denied. The court found the officer's reasoning unreasonable and sent the case back for redetermination.

As the immigration landscape continues to evolve, the surge in refusals and subsequent judicial reviews highlight the pressing need for fair and individualized assessments in Canada's immigration system.