The October 13 peace summit in Sharm al-Sheikh—where Donald Trump assembled more than 30 world leaders, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and (for some reason) the international soccer vizier Gianni Infantino—achieved, for about two hours, general agreement on a 20-point plan for Gaza. It had immediately freed the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages, in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, plus assurances of an Israeli military withdrawal and an end to the war. On that day, I made the case for optimism. Now it is time to make the case for the opposite.

In one, and probably only one, respect, the pageant in Sharm al-Sheikh resembled a certain type of Protestant wedding. The guests at those weddings affirm, out loud, that they will, in the Anglican phrasing, “do

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