Two new events, as well as mounting apprehension about the Budget in a month, signal a chilly autumn for Keir Starmer.

The Caerphilly by-election trouncing behind Plaid Cymru and Reform has prompted comparisons with the nadir of Starmer’s opposition leadership , the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, which nearly caused the anxious then-opposition leader to throw in the towel.

Even the Prime Minister admits to being winded by a 27 per cent swing against his party, ruminating: “We need to reflect and regroup and double down on delivery in Wales, and we clearly need to do much more.”

But do more of what, to turn a popularity slump into a stick-with-us mood and buy time to deliver an uptick in national feeling – and see off Reform’s challenge.

This uncertainty dominated an ill-tempered d

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