FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewellery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/File Photo/File Photo

By Anmol Choubey

(Reuters) -Gold's winning streak is seen extending into next year, with analysts forecasting an annual average price above $4,000 per ounce for the first time as economic and geopolitical turmoil keep the metal's safe-haven allure intact, a Reuters poll showed.

The poll of 39 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,400 per troy ounce of gold for 2025, up from $3,220 in July. They expect prices to average $4,275 in 2026, up sharply from $3,400 three months prior.[COMMODS-GOLD] [PREC/POLL]

Gold has hit successive record highs and hurdled the $4,000/oz mark to gain 54% so far this year, leaving the metal on track for its strongest annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis. Prices have averaged $3,281 so far this year.

"Gold's performance in 2025 reflects more than the strength of a rally. It marks an acceptance of a new reality. The market is no longer responding to short-term shocks but to a deeper loss of confidence in policymakers, currencies, and the financial system itself," said David Russell at GoldCore.

Gold, a traditional hedge during times of uncertainty, has gained on broader geopolitical concerns, trade turmoil and a swing away from dollar dominance, with central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds underpinning its rise. Expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have also supported the non-yielding metal.

While analysts foresee continued gains for gold into 2026, they expect the pace to moderate.

Persistent uncertainty is likely to sustain support for the rally, with central banks anticipated to continue buying gold for reserve diversification and investors increasingly treating the metal as a core portfolio asset rather than a speculative investment, analysts say.

"While jewellery demand may remain price-constrained, the official sector's strategic purchases, together with retail and institutional investment flows, are likely to be the dominant drivers," said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree.

SILVER OUTLOOK REMAINS BULLISH

Analysts also lifted silver price forecasts, now expecting the white metal to average $38.45 in 2025 and $50 in 2026, compared to $34.52 and $38 forecast in July's poll. [COMMODS-SILVER]

Silver, both a safe-haven asset and industrial metal, has gained 65% this year and notched an all-time high of $54.47. Supply deficits and robust demand from sectors such as solar technology, electric vehicles, and AI data centres underpin its outlook.

"Silver continues to see structural supply deficits and this is expected to continue in 2026. Silver is also uniquely positioned as a 'higher beta' play on a bullish metals market, benefiting both from its traditional role as a monetary hedge (like gold) and its crucial industrial applications," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Analysts say robust investment demand will remain a key driver of silver's price gains, as investors seek a cheaper alternative to gold.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Veronica Brown and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)