India's crude oil imports from the United States have surged to their highest levels since 2022, reaching 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of October 27. This increase is part of India's strategy to diversify its oil sources away from Russia and to ease trade tensions with the Trump administration. By the end of October, imports are expected to rise to approximately 575,000 bpd, with projections for November ranging between 400,000 and 450,000 bpd, according to data from Kpler.

The rise in imports is driven by economic factors, including a favorable arbitrage opportunity and a wider Brent-WTI differential, which have made WTI Midland crude more attractive for Indian refineries. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, noted that the absence of Chinese demand has also contributed to this trend, allowing Indian refiners to capitalize on the situation.

Despite this increase, Russia remains India's largest crude supplier, accounting for about one-third of total imports. Iraq and Saudi Arabia follow as the second and third largest suppliers, respectively. Indian refiners are now actively procuring US crude varieties like Midland WTI and Mars to broaden their supply sources and signal cooperation with Washington.

This shift comes amid tightening sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, which could compel India to reduce its reliance on Russian crude. The US has set a deadline of November 21 for concluding transactions with these companies, prompting Indian refiners to prepare for a future without Russian oil.

Ritolia cautioned that while the increase in US crude imports highlights India's refining flexibility, it is primarily driven by short-term economic opportunities rather than a structural change. He stated, "While the surge underscores India's refining flexibility and ability to capture short-term opportunities, the current rise is arbitrage-led, not structural."

The growing share of US crude in India's imports reflects a strategic alignment with US energy policies and a broader diversification strategy. However, Ritolia emphasized that further growth in US crude imports may be limited due to logistical challenges and the specific needs of Indian refineries, which are optimized for heavier crude grades.

As India navigates these changes, it aims to balance energy security, economic considerations, and geopolitical relationships, particularly in light of the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian exports.