NFL straight-up picks Week 9: The Bills preserve hope (just to disembowel it later)

NFL Straight-Up Picks Week 9

Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

We know how this story plays out. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet in the regular season vying for supremacy in the AFC. The Bills win and hopes float like a blimp over western New York. The dream of finishing a mission started by Marv Levy and Jim Kelly and Bruce Smith shines through a region covered in lake effect snow.

Then, the playoffs come and the Chiefs smash that optimism into tiny pieces, bury it and salt the earth above in an effort to keep it from ever growing again.

The Bills and Chiefs have met in each of the last four regular seasons. Buffalo has won all four games by an average score of 28 to 19.5. The Bills and Chiefs have met in four of the last five postseasons. Kansas City has won all four games by an average score of 35 to 28. Whatever Buffalo's defense figures out in the regular season evaporates when it matters most, and that's why we haven't had an AFC title game without Patrick Mahomes since 2017.

Thus, the silver lining to a home loss in Week 9 would be the fact it's failed to stop the Chiefs from their Super Bowl dreams in recent years. And, yep, that's what bettors are expecting as the Bills enter what could be the final meeting between these teams at Highmark Stadium as a 2.5-point underdog.

So do you bet history, or the fact the Chiefs have been on fire lately while Buffalo lost two straight games before its bye and then dusted a bad Carolina Panthers team? That's the biggest mystery in Week 9. It's one we're gonna try and figure out with our straight-up picks.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn't as fruitful — Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings.

Joining me for 2025 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Cory Woodroof and Joseph). Here are our Week 9 picks.

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Survivor pick of the week: Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) over the Tennessee Titans

I failed to heed my own advice last week and rolled with the Atlanta Falcons, hoping to preserve the streaking Colts for a later date. This was a mistake.

Thus, we're back to the well of picking against the Titans, which works as long as you don't doofus-brain your way to devastation like the Arizona Cardinals did. The other Los Angeles team is facing the New Orleans Saints and Tyler Shough at home, which is another great opportunity but also a team you may want to save for later in the season in your survivor pool.

Not that I would know, I picked the Falcons last week.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 7-0 (1.000)

Hardest favorite to back: Chicago Bears (-3) over the Cincinnati Bengals

Why I like this pick:

Joe Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury and may not play. That would leave the offense in the hands of Jake Browning, who went 0-4 in the four games in which he's appeared this season and has led the Bengals to 20-plus points only once in that stretch.

Cincinnati's defense ranks 32nd in points allowed, 32nd in yards allowed and 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed (thanks, Dallas Cowboys!). There is no better place for first year head coach Ben Johnson to open up a laboratory of weird plays and see how they work than in southwestern Ohio. Caleb Williams has been processing well and while he's prone to mistakes he's also teetering on the brink of a breakthrough. Which is such terrible, awful news for the poor Bengals — especially if Trey Hendrickson isn't 100 percent.

Why I don't like this pick:

Joe Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury and might throw for 350 yards anyway against a Bears defense that lacks the pass rush to consistently bother a 41-year-old quarterback. Chicago ranks 27th in pressure rate despite ranking 14th in blitz rate. Cincinnati's pass blocking is bad enough to get Joe Burrow exploded on a semi-regular basis, but should be able to keep the pocket relatively clean in Week 9.

If it's clean, well, you've got Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to worry about with a secondary giving up a 98.6 passer rating in coverage. Williams should be able to win a shootout, but the Bears just faced one of the league's worst defenses (Baltimore) and managed only 16 points. If Chicago can lose to Tyler Hundley, it can lose to Browning or Flacco.

• Last week: 0-1
• 2025 to date: 3-5 (.375)

Upset pick of the week: Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs

Why I like this pick:

The Bills take this game exceedingly seriously as an opportunity to prove their ability to navigate the rough playoff seas to a Super Bowl. That hasn't translated to a spot in the big game, but it's generally been a flex that reassures us, yes, Buffalo is in fact extremely good.

That applies to Josh Allen, obviously, but also to James Cook. His 225 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) are the most in the NFL, which is wild considering how good Jonathan Taylor has been. Kansas City ranks just 22nd in run stop efficiency. If they sacrifice defensive backs for extra linebackers or sacrifice a QB spy, Allen is going to find all the room he needs to back up his MVP credentials.

A Week 6 loss to the inscrutable Atlanta Falcons may have been the wake-up call the Bills needed, especially with a Week 7 bye and subsequent frog-stomping of Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers. Head coach Sean McDermott understands how to make adjustments and turnarounds, even if they're occasionally spurred by, uh, weird messaging. Combine that with a raucous Orchard Park crowd and you've got enough to convince me.

Why I don't like this pick:

The Chiefs' passing offense since Rashee Rice returned from suspension following a guilty plea to felony street racing and causing serious injury ranks second only to the Philadelphia Eagles in EPA per dropback. Now that group gets to face one of the league's worst safety duos and a 30-year-old Tre'Davious White. Sure, Kansas City's run offense is a mess, but that may not matter — especially if a team that relies on its pass rush to ease the pressure on its secondary flails without Ed Oliver (three sacks in three games this season).

While the Chiefs have been limited against the run, they're pretty solid against the pass — a -0.32 EPA/dropback is equal to the Bills this fall. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is intimately familiar with Allen at this point and has created ways to stop him when it matters most.

• Last week: n/a
• 2025 to date: 4-3 (.571)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 9: The Bills preserve hope (just to disembowel it later)

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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