Jack Ciattarelli comes out to address his supporters at 12:30 a.m. at the Marriott in Bridgewater, NJ, on November 3, 2021. The supporters of the New Jersey gubernatorial candidate were told to wait for all the votes to be counted as Ciattarelli tries to unseat incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy in a tight race that was too close to call.

A new poll finds the New Jersey race for governor could be growing tighter, with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill edging 4 points ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli less than a week before Election Day on Nov. 4.

The statewide poll from Suffolk University puts Sherrill's support among likely voters at 46%, while Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, stands at 42%, though the difference is still within the survey's margins of error. Another 7% of respondents said they were undecided and 3% refused to respond. Two other candidates on the ballot received 1% of support.

David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, said there were enough undecided voters to impact the outcome of the election. “The candidate with the best turnout operation takes the prize, pure and simple," he said.

The poll is only the latest evidence of the race's competitiveness, which has drawn national attention due to the candidates' high spending and the race's potential to illustrate where voters are leaning a year ahead of the consequential 2026 midterm elections. Democrats and Republicans have been fundraising aggressively for their respective candidates, shattering spending records and making it the most expensive race in New Jersey history. In September, spending by candidates and independent expenditure committees exceeded $145 million, according to state filings.

The statewide poll surveyed 500 likely New Jersey voters by phone from Oct. 26 to 29 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Early in-person voting in the state began on Oct. 25 and lasts through Nov. 2, before day-of voting on Election Day.

Among those statewide who have already cast ballots, Sherrill had a 21-point lead over her Republican competitor in the poll, leading 56% to Ciattarelli's 35%.

New Jersey's current governor, Democrat Phil Murphy, is term-limited after eight years in office. If Sherrill succeeds, it will mark the first time the Democratic Party has held the office for three consecutive terms since the 1960s.

Leading figures from both parties have also weighed in on the closely watched race. Former President Barack Obama threw his support behind Sherrill, and President Donald Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli.

With such big-name backers, the race is considered a key testing ground for both parties. Though Trump lost the Democratic-leaning state in 2024, he fared better in the Garden State than in his previous two presidential runs, finishing just under 6 points behind Democrat Kamala Harris. It was one of the biggest swings in his direction of any state in the country. Following that performance, a Democratic win in the race for governor could be interpreted as a warning sign for the GOP.

Contributing: Susan Page, USA TODAY.

Kathryn Palmer is a politics reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@usatoday.com and on X @KathrynPlmr.

Republican Jack Ciattarelli 42.20%

Democrat Mikie Sherrill 46.20%

Polling in the race has jumped around over the past two months, with one poll in September showing Sherrill up by 8 percentage points, followed a week later by a survey that had her tied with Ciattarelli. In polls released October, Sherrill's lead ticked a few points down, putting her at a 2-point and 5-point lead.

Kathryn Palmer is a politics reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@usatoday.com and on X @KathrynPlmr.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrat Mikie Sherrill has slight lead in race for New Jersey governor, poll says

Reporting by Kathryn Palmer, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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