Graphics by Ramon Padilla and Ignacio Calderon, USA TODAY
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In a bid for Republicans to hold onto power in Washington, President Donald Trump has been pushing GOP-led states to eke out extra seats ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections by redrawing congressional district maps to favor their party.

Now, Democrat-led states are responding.

On Tuesday Nov. 4, Californians pass prop 50. A Democrat-led redistricting plan can now move forward. They hope their efforts can ultimately offset Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s own remapping.

A flurry of additional states have also floated the idea of redistricting, but few have tangible or realistic plans to do so. This is because redistricting typically happens at the start of every decade, with some states outright prohibiting more mid-decade changes. With California and Texas being the states with the most seats by far, they hold more weight on who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

USA TODAY applied voting data from previous elections to the newly-drawn districts in order to simulate the impact these changes could bring and what it means for voters across the nation. Here’s how we did it and what we learned:

To compare the district maps, we used voting data from the 2024 presidential election. In California, this is available by precinct through Statewide Database. This data can be broken down further by census blocks, a granular view of how people voted. These census blocks can then be aggregated by both the current and new district maps.

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Our analysis shows California could flip six seats from the GOP to Democrats: districts 1, 3, 9, 13, 41 and 48. However, it’s not a slam dunk. District 13 would end up with a thin +0.5 point advantage for Democrats and the party would end up with a slightly larger +3.4 point margin in District 48. The other four seats could end up with healthier margins of at least +10 points.

Here’s a closer look at how the margins - the difference between the percentage of people who voted for each party - would shift in each of California’s districts under the new maps. For example, In California's District 35, former Vice President Kamala Harris won 53 percent of the votes, compared to Trump's 43 percent, giving Democrats a 10-point margin.

One thing to note about this data: while the precinct data used is the most complete we found, precincts with under 10 voters had redacted data. This removed about 0.05% of total voters.

In Texas, overlaying precincts with current and new maps shows how elections could unfold. Republicans could gain three seats through redistricting and improve margins on two more seats.

To perform this analysis we assumed that Californians and Texans would vote the same way they did in the 2024 presidential elections. But if the past is any indication of the future, the 2026 midterms could look drastically different from the general elections without Trump or a Democratic presidential nominee at the top of the ticket. Another caveat is that presidential results can differ from U.S. House elections. And while it's not guaranteed, the president's party is usually punished in the midterms. Still, the overall analysis paints a picture of how the balance of power could shift.

Only three presidents since 1934 have managed to see their party gain House seats in a midterm election. The vast majority lost ground, including Trump, whose Republicans lost 40 seats in his first midterms in 2018.

On a year marked by aggressive tariffs, an immigration crackdown and environmental rollbacks, Trump’s approval rating via Gallup polls has dropped during his second term from 47% in January to 41% in October.

Additional states including Florida, Kansas, Indiana, Maryland, Utah, Illinois, and New York, have considered (to differing extents) the idea of updating their maps, Reuters reported.

Some other states with final or advanced plans:

  • Missouri Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed a new map into law to gain one extra seat, though it faces lawsuits and a potential statewide vote to reject it.
  • North Carolina also approved a new map in October to flip one Democratic seat.
  • In Virginia, Democratic lawmakers are working on a constitutional amendment that will allow them to change the maps in 2026.
  • In Ohio, lawmakers reached a deal on a new map aimed at trying to flip two Democratic seats, including one held by Rep. Marcy Kaptur – the longest-serving woman in Congress history, representing Toledo.

Looking forward, here's the current balance of power in the House and the number of seats each state has there:

This is a developing story which may be updated.

For a full breakdown of how we analyzed this data, you can read our methodology on this GitHub page.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How Proposition 50 can change California elections and shift Trump's strategy

Reporting by Ramon Padilla and Ignacio Calderon, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect