OTTAWA — Experts are advising Canada to proceed carefully as it seeks to reset its relationship with China. Alan Kessel, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and a former Canadian diplomat, noted that with the United States becoming an increasingly unreliable trade partner, Canada’s pivot toward China carries inherent risks.

“It’s Canada hedging against the end of the ‘special relationship,’” Kessel said. He emphasized that while engagement is important, it should not lead to a lack of critical oversight. “There are concerns to watch out for — engagement can’t mean blindness.”

Kessel pointed out that China’s influence often comes with conditions. He cited China’s controversial dealings in Africa, which many observers have labeled as exploitative and quasi-colonial, despite being framed as investments. “Beijing doesn’t buy friendship. It buys influence,” he stated. “The real test isn’t whether we talk to China, but whether we can still say no to China — Canada’s challenge is to trade with China without being traded by China.”

The Canadian government’s efforts to strengthen ties with China began early Friday when Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the APEC summit. Carney accepted an invitation for a future state visit to Beijing.

This renewed focus on China raises questions about Canada’s stance on Taiwan, which Canada does not recognize as a sovereign state due to its adherence to Beijing’s “One China” policy. Kessel argued that if Canada were to align with its values, it would recognize Taiwan as a state, noting that Taiwan meets more criteria for statehood than some recognized entities.

“I would expect continuity in (Canada’s Taiwan) policy, but softer language, quiet cooperation with Taiwan, louder diplomacy with Beijing,” Kessel said. He added that Canada would likely reaffirm the One China Policy while maintaining unofficial economic and academic ties with Taiwan.

Harry Tseng, Taiwan’s ambassador to Canada, commented on Carney’s meeting with Xi and the anticipated updates to Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. He indicated that these developments suggest significant policy changes may be on the horizon.

“For decades, the pressure that China puts on Taiwan has never relented, which leads to Taiwan’s high vigilance,” Tseng said. He highlighted that many Canadians may not be aware of the various tactics China employs against Taiwan, including military intimidation, political and economic coercion, and disinformation campaigns.

Tseng stressed the importance of unity among democratic nations in the face of these challenges. “Taiwan is ready and willing to share its experiences in countering China’s aggression,” he said.