Pakistan, whose agricultural sector relies heavily on water from the Indus basin, is staring at an acute risk of water shortage because India can change the flow of the Indus River within its technical capacity. The Ecological Threat Report 2025, released by the Sydney-based non-profit Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), even minor adjustments in dam operations during summers could significantly impact Pakistan’s densely populated plains. These areas are dependent on the Indus basin for 80% of their irrigated agriculture even though India cannot completely stop or divert the flow of water.

The IEP report also highlighted that Pakistan remains vulnerable to seasonal shortages as its storage capacity is limited to roughly 30 days of river flow.

“For Pakistan, the danger is acute. If I

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