Heading into COP30, where tropical forests are set to be a central theme, it seemed worth attempting a thought experiment: to trace today’s trajectories a little further forward and imagine where they might lead. What follows are a series of scenarios—some improbable, others already taking shape. In 2024, the tropics lost 6.7 million hectares of primary rainforest—an area the size of Panama, and nearly twice that of the year before. Fires were the main culprit for the first time on record. In Brazil, drought turned controlled burns into infernos; in Bolivia, policy incentives fanned the flames. Even the Congo, long a refuge, began to fray. Some say it might represent an inflection point. The data suggest less a turning point than problems long in motion and now gathering speed. The story,

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