In its final report of the fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury Department delivered some unfortunate news. The government spent a little over $7 trillion in 2025 and raised just $5.2 trillion in taxes. To cover the gap, it borrowed $1.8 trillion, equivalent to more than a quarter of public spending and 6% of gross domestic product. “Unsustainable” is too mild a word.
Washington, preoccupied aptly enough with the latest government shutdown, has mostly looked away from this looming crisis. Before much longer, that option will no longer be available.
The Congressional Budget Office recently projected federal debt over the coming decades — assuming that current laws remain in place — and then asked what would change, given all-too-plausible variations around its customary baseline. It found that

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