U.S. President Donald Trump provided a brief response last week regarding his intentions in Venezuela, stating simply, "No," when asked about a potential invasion. However, in a subsequent CBS interview, he expressed uncertainty, saying, "I doubt it. I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly." This statement reflects Trump's broader sentiment that many countries, including Canada, treat him poorly when they resist his policies.

Despite his brief denial of invasion plans, Trump has focused significant military resources on Venezuela. This includes a buildup of ships, troops, aircraft, and intelligence operations. The U.S. has also engaged in aggressive actions against suspected drug vessels, resulting in numerous fatalities. Trump has authorized covert CIA operations within Venezuela and placed a $50 million bounty on President Nicolás Maduro, suggesting he believes Maduro's regime is nearing its end.

There are several factors that raise questions about the likelihood of the U.S. launching a full-scale war against Venezuela. Such an action would contradict Trump's frequent criticisms of previous administrations for engaging in "stupid wars." Additionally, the prospect of American casualties is a significant concern for any president, particularly for Trump, who is known to avoid criticism.

Moreover, a military conflict could exacerbate divisions within the Republican Party, especially among those who favor a more isolationist approach. Venezuela has allies in Russia, China, and Iran, which could complicate U.S. military actions. While Venezuelan forces may not match U.S. military strength, history shows that limited conflicts can escalate into prolonged engagements, often resulting in difficult withdrawals.

Despite these concerns, Trump has gained confidence from recent diplomatic successes, including efforts to reduce violence in Gaza and secure the return of Israeli captives. Meanwhile, a Reuters investigation revealed that the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is more extensive than previously known. A naval base in Puerto Rico, which had been inactive for two decades, has been reopened and upgraded. Other U.S. facilities near Venezuela are also being prepared for increased military activity.

The U.S. has redirected an aircraft carrier group from the Adriatic Sea, deploying up to 10,000 troops to the region. A mobile aircraft control tower has been moved to support operations, and at least 13 warships, five support vessels, and a nuclear submarine have been sent to the area, including the USS Gerald Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the fleet.

U.S. military actions against suspected drug smuggling boats have continued, raising legal and ethical questions among lawmakers and experts. Reports indicate that between nine and 15 strikes have occurred, resulting in over 60 deaths. While the U.S. government claims these boats were involved in drug trafficking, the campaign has increased tensions in the region, leading to speculation about the true motives behind these military actions.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro has criticized the U.S. offensive, claiming it resulted in the death of a Colombian fisherman. Despite Colombia's long border with Venezuela, it has no reason to support Maduro's regime. The situation remains complex as the U.S. navigates its military presence and diplomatic relations in Latin America.