Between the two gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, Virginia was supposed to be the lopsided one — and it was , with Democrat Abigail Spanberger crushing Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points .

But New Jersey looked like it was going to be a different story. The polling was competitive, and Republicans had nominated a battle-tested candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, who’d nearly won the governorship four years earlier. Recent momentum was on the GOP’s side, too, with President Donald Trump coming within 6 points of Kamala Harris there last year — a giant improvement from the 16-point Jersey drubbing he’d suffered in 2020. And Democrats were privately sharing alarm that their nominee, Mikie Sherrill, seemed to be wilting under the spotlight.

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