There is only one thing to remember when trying to predict Oscar season: there is no sure thing. Statistics are meaningless, festival buzz doesn’t always translate to the real world and it’s impossible to talk about the Academy as if it’s one hive mind. That won’t stop people from looking for early indicators to try and read the awards tea leaves. But how’s this for perspective: at this time last year, many people had written off “Anora” as having peaked too early, and no longer a real contender for the top prize. A few months later, it would make history by winning filmmaker Sean Baker four Academy Awards , including best picture .

So, while we have a pretty good sense of what’s in contention this year, there are also quite a few films that are likely being underestimated. As of now,

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