Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs the ball during the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) and the Houston Texans (3-5) meet Sunday in Week 10 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds around the Jaguars vs. Texans odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Jaguars ended their 2-game skid in dramatic fashion, edging the Las Vegas Raiders 30-29 in overtime. The 1-point spread pushed as the Over (44) cashed. NT DaVon Hamilton sealed the win by batting down Geno Smith’s 2-point conversion attempt in OT. Despite battling illness, QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 220 yards and ran for 2 TDs. K Cam Little also made history, nailing an NFL-record 68-yard field goal to close the first half.

The Texans suffered a tough 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9, failing to cover as 2.5-point home favorites as the Under (42) points cashed. Denver won on a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Houston never reached the end zone, relying on K Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 5 field goals after QB C.J. Stroud exited early with a concussion. Backup QB Davis Mills struggled to sustain drives as the offense sputtered throughout.

The Jaguars beat their AFC South rivals 17-10 in Week 3 as 1.5-point home favorites as the Under (43.5) hit. The Texans lead the all-time series 31-16, including 16-7 at home.

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Jaguars at Texans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:26 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Jaguars -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Texans -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Jaguars -1 (-110) | Texans +1 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Jaguars at Texans key injuries

Jaguars

  • OL Ezra Cleveland (knee/ankle) out
  • CB Jourdan Lewis (neck) out
  • TE Hunter Long (hip/knee) out
  • WR Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) out

Texans

  • TE Harrison Bryant (shoulder) questionable
  • K Ka'imi Fairbairn (quad) out
  • OL Tytus Howard (concussion) out
  • OL Ed Ingram (knee) out
  • FB Jakob Johnson (hamstring) out
  • S Jalen Pitre (concussion) out
  • QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) out

Jaguars at Texans picks and predictions

Prediction

Jaguars 20, Texans 10

Moneyline

BET JAGUARS (-115).

Houston’s offense was already struggling with Stroud under center, and without him, things could get ugly. The Texans rank just 24th in scoring (21 points per game) and last in red-zone efficiency (36.4%). Mills took over last week and led 6 straight punts—this attack just can’t sustain drives.

Yes, Houston’s defense is elite—first in points allowed (15.1 PPG) and top 6 against both the run and pass—but the Jaguars’ balanced offense can grind out enough production. Lawrence, even when not fully healthy, has shown grit, throwing for 1,840 yards while adding key rushing scores. Jacksonville’s ground game (123.6 yards per game, 11th NFL) should find lanes against a tired front that’s been carrying this Texans squad.

Defensively, Jacksonville has the personnel to make Mills uncomfortable. The Jags rank third in rushing defense and have forced turnovers in nearly every game. With Houston missing its top playmaker and fielding one of the league’s least efficient red-zone units, points will be at a premium.

Add in the fact that Jacksonville has been in 6 one-score games already this season—they know how to win tight battles—and this matchup feels made for them. It won’t be pretty, but Jacksonville's edge in quarterback play and balance on both sides should be enough to grab a road win. Give me Jacksonville straight up.

Against the spread

PASS.

No need to play with the spread being this small. I'll just keep my wager to the moneyline.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 37.5 (-110).

Both defenses have been strong, and both offenses are struggling—especially with Stroud sidelined. The Under has cashed in 4 straight meetings and 6 of the last 7 between these teams. Houston’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league, while Jacksonville’s defense ranks top-10 against the run. Expect another grind-it-out, low-scoring divisional battle that stays comfortably Under 37.5.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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