Why predicting the northern lights is harder than it looks

Few natural phenomena inspire as much anticipation as the northern lights. When the aurora forecast looks promising, people from Alaska to Australia watch the skies, hoping for a glimpse of green, red, and violet ribbons shimmering across the sky. But in many cases, after hours of waiting, not much happens.

Why? Despite decades of scientific advancements, predicting the northern lights remains an imprecise science. “Space weather today is where terrestrial weather was in the 1960s,” says Vince Ledvina , an aurora chaser, photographer, and doctoral student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Here’s what makes aurora forecasting so tricky—and how chasers can boost their chances of witnessing this celestial spectacle.

What are the northern lights?

The northern lights, or aurora borea