While I can certainly empathize with the frustration and scepticism that comes when government ministers practice the fine art of “blowing smoke,” on this one, the answer will likely be it’s going to be close, but attrition will not be enough.

Let’s start with the numbers. As stated in Budget 2025, by 2028-29, there will be a “decline of about 40,000 or 10 per cent from the 2023-24 peak.” The public service grew to 367,772 employees in 2024, before falling to 357,965 this year, according to the Treasury Board. So, around 10,000 jobs were already cut with 30,000 to go. The overall target is to have 330,000 federal public servants by 2028-29.

The annual attrition rate of the federal public service is estimated at 4 per cent. At the aggregate level across government, it is reasonable to

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