The government faces challenges in achieving its planned public service cuts primarily through attrition. According to Budget 2025, the federal public service is expected to decrease by about 40,000 employees, or 10 percent, by the fiscal year 2028-29. This follows a peak of 367,772 employees in 2024, with the current number at 357,965, indicating that approximately 10,000 jobs have already been eliminated. The target is to reach 330,000 federal public servants by 2028-29.

The annual attrition rate for the federal public service is estimated at 4 percent. This suggests that between 10,000 and 12,000 employees may leave voluntarily each year due to retirement or other reasons. The government has introduced an early retirement incentive, which is expected to encourage eligible employees to retire.

Despite these measures, experts express skepticism about whether attrition alone can meet the government's reduction goals. Some departments may struggle to achieve necessary cuts through voluntary departures. For instance, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has already reduced its workforce by 6,500 employees, from a high of 59,000 in 2024 to about 52,500 currently. The CRA is tasked with implementing an additional $4.1 billion in cuts, which may require further job reductions.

If the CRA's attrition rate remains at 4 percent, it may not be able to realize the required savings solely through voluntary departures. In contrast, some departments may see attrition rates exceed their staffing reduction needs, allowing them to avoid involuntary layoffs.

The uneven impact of these cuts across departments raises concerns for employees. Those affected may have opportunities to transition to new agencies or departments with increasing budgets, such as the Department of National Defence. However, the process of workforce adjustment can be stressful and anxiety-inducing for those facing potential job loss.

Scott Taymun, a former federal executive with over 30 years of experience, noted that while the government aims to minimize the impact of these cuts, the reliance on attrition may not suffice in all cases. He emphasized that the government has strategically planned the reductions to mitigate political backlash and ease the transition for employees.

As the government moves forward with its public service cuts, the effectiveness of attrition as a strategy remains uncertain, with potential implications for many federal employees in the coming years.