Michael Kovrig, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group and a former Canadian diplomat, is widely recognized in Canada as one of the "two Michaels" detained by Chinese authorities in 2018. His arrest followed the detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a U.S. extradition request.

Kovrig recounted his experience, stating, "I was detained by state security officers when I was coming back from dinner and they abducted me and held me hostage for 1,019 days. I spent about nearly six months in solitary confinement, being relentlessly interrogated, and then another two years in a detention center, confined to a single cell." He described the ordeal as grueling, affecting not only him but also his family. "It’s something I’ve spent the last few years, as has my family, recovering from. Now we’re all doing pretty well, but it hasn’t been an easy journey. An experience like that gives you a lot of trauma and a lot of heavy things to carry."

Reflecting on China’s market liberalization, Kovrig noted that many had hoped it would lead to democratization, a notion he now considers a "fantasy." He acknowledged that while it was not surprising for the Chinese government to use him and Michael Spavor as political pawns, he did not anticipate being kidnapped as a former diplomat. "What that experience did, unfortunately, was really help me appreciate the very limited prospects for changing that regime and the way it thinks," he said.

Kovrig emphasized the need for Canada to take robust measures to protect its interests. He stated, "The days of engagement and dreaming that we could change China by bringing that government into an international system, into a liberal trading order, that fantasy is gone."

Despite the challenges posed by China’s Communist leadership, Kovrig acknowledged the country’s significance as a manufacturing powerhouse. He suggested that Canada should prioritize trade with more aligned nations before engaging with China. "It’s better to prioritize stronger economic trade and investment and security relations with other countries — with Europe, with the Indo-Pacific countries, with ASEAN, Latin America, Africa," he advised.

Kovrig likened the approach to dating, saying, "If you go on the dating market and you look desperate and afraid, things are probably not going to go ideally for you. You want to project confidence and have a clear understanding of what you want and what your boundaries are."

He warned that economic interests in China cannot be separated from its political ambitions, which aim to further the Communist Party’s geopolitical goals. "For China, everything is geopolitical and everything can be potentially weaponized for leverage," he cautioned. He also expressed concern over cooperation in high-tech sectors, stating, "Co-operation on a lot of high-tech things is just not an option anymore because there’s such a track record that the Chinese government will siphon off any advanced technology that it doesn’t already have and then turn it to military purposes."

Kovrig highlighted the potential risks if China were to monopolize manufacturing, particularly in the context of a conflict. He noted, "If China hollows out the industrial base of all the G7 countries and then there is a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea, tabletop wargame exercises have already indicated that the U.S. and its allies would run out of ammo and missiles and materials within days or weeks, and it would take years to rebuild."

He pointed out that China has already gained dominance in strategic industries, including shipbuilding, and now has a larger navy than the U.S. Kovrig stated, "China wants to dominate East Asia and the western Pacific the way it perceives the United States as being dominant in North America."

To counter the economic and military threat posed by China, Kovrig urged Canada and its allies to strengthen their alliances. "We need to double down on alliances with like-minded partners to try to shore up as much of the multilateral liberal order as possible through trade agreements," he said. He emphasized the importance of promoting a positive narrative to developing countries, where China is seeking influence. "Canada needs to come to those partners with a compelling story backed up by substance of why it’s better to partner with Canada on things than with China," he concluded.