Next Sunday’s meeting between the Colts and Chiefs at Arrowhead brings an unexpectedly high-stakes twist to one of the AFC’s most familiar power dynamics. Kansas City—once the conference’s immovable playoff fixture, with five Super Bowl appearances in the last six years—enters Week 12 at just 5-5 and in real danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have dropped two straight to contenders, and Dimers’ model now gives them only a 77% chance to hold serve at home , a far cry from the ironclad certainty that once followed them into every late-season matchup.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, arrives with momentum and opportunity. At 8-2 and sitting near the top of the AFC standings, the Colts can push the defending conference champions deeper int

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