The Houston Texans have won the AFC South the last two seasons, reaching the Divisional Round of the playoffs both years.

This season, they have rebounded from an 0-3 start to climb back to 5-5. They are now only one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for third and final wild card spot in the AFC.

But, as Houston hosts Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the Thursday Night Football game, the Texans' playoff hopes are on thinner ice than "one game behind" suggests.

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According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, Houston enters Week 12 with just a 20.5% chanc

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