By Jon Scheve

On Nov. 14, the USDA released its November WASDE and Crop Production reports.

The main takeaway is that the USDA expects a big crop with a 186-bushel-per-acre yield. However, the market remains skeptical and seems to be trading at a yield of around 182 to 183. The market is acting like it doesn’t want to be fooled like last year, when the USDA reported a massive 3.8-bushel yield drop in January.

Considering this year’s massive disease issues in the western Corn Belt, the market’s cautious approach makes sense. However, the surprise stocks increase in the Sept. 30 report suggests that last year’s final yield decrease in the January report was probably too much. And that could also mean the market’s belief of a big yield drop this January might not happen.

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