The New England Patriots will seek their ninth straight win when they oppose the 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Despite the vast record discrepancy, an ESPN projection model suggests the matchup is closer than it appears.

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Patriots a 52.5 percent chance to defeat the Bengals in Week 12. That’s a modest number given New England’s -370 moneyline, which implies a 78.7 percent win probability.

The Patriots are currently a seven-point favorite on the road, but that could change if Joe Burrow returns from a toe injury that’s sidelined him since Week 2. The Bengals listed their superstar quarterback as questionable on Friday.

A healthy Burrow certainly affects the game’s outlook, but offense isn’t Cincinnati’s primary concern.

The Bengals have averaged

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