Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist at Nomura, said the medium-term outlook for the Indian economy remains firm, backed by a stronger rupee, steady growth and room for monetary easing, even as global uncertainty persists.

Nandi said progress on a trade deal with the United States will be key for the currency. Nomura expects the rupee to end the year near 88 per dollar, strengthen to 87.6 in the first quarter of 2026 and move toward 86.5 by the end of 2026. “There’ve been so many false starts on this that it’s more of sort of cautious optimism than anything,” Nandi said.

The final tariff rate under the deal will be critical, with a 15–20% range putting India on par with regional peers, while a higher rate would continue to weigh on exporters.

Nandi said the October trade deficit of more than

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