Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium.

For the first time in a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still in the prime of his career, having just turned 30 years old, and the Chiefs are coming off of a third straight Super Bowl appearance – their fifth in six years – and a ninth straight AFC West title. Kansas City also hasn't missed the playoffs since 2014.

And yet...

The Chiefs are 6-6 through 13 weeks and would be on the outside looking in on the postseason if the season ended after November. Kansas City is all but out of the AFC West title race, essentially needing to win out its final five games and hope the Denver Broncos lose out.

The Chiefs' playoff hopes almost exclusively rely on securing a wild-card berth. With that being the case, here's where their playoff outlook stands with five weeks left in the 2025 regular season:

Chiefs playoff odds

NFL Next Gen Stats gives the Chiefs a 37% chance to make the playoffs after their Thanksgiving loss and wins from a couple of teams in front of them during Week 13's Sunday slate.

If the season ended after November, Kansas City would be on the outside of the AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs currently hold the No. 10 spot in the conference, and their 6-6 record keeps them two games behind all three 8-4 teams that hold wild-card spots: the Chargers, Colts and Bills.

Kansas City hasn't been able to string together a win streak longer than three games this season, and the team is reaching a point in the season in which it may need to win out to make the playoffs. With five weeks left, the Chiefs' win over the Colts in Week 12 looms large as a potential head-to-head tiebreaker for the last AFC playoff spot.

Chiefs remaining schedule

The Chiefs have some significant tests ahead of them to close out the season. Kansas City has to play all three of its divisional opponents again, and their Week 14 "Sunday Night Football" game against the Texans could decide if the Chiefs can jump Houston in a potential wild-card race.

Tankathon rates their remaining schedule as the 14th-easiest league-wide. Here's who Kansas City still needs to play:

  • Week 14: vs. Houston Texans
  • Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
  • Week 16: at Tennessee Titans
  • Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos
  • Week 18: at Las Vegas Raiders

The positive news for the team is that all of their hardest games – according to opponent record – are at home. The Chiefs will welcome the Texans, Chargers and Broncos to Arrowhead but will travel to play the Titans and Raiders. Tennessee and Las Vegas have three wins between them through 13 weeks and are the only two teams eliminated from the AFC playoff hunt as of Dec. 1.

AFC West standings

Through 13 weeks, the Chiefs have nearly been eliminated from AFC West title contention. At 6-6, they're four games behind the Broncos for the top spot in the division with five games to play.

Kansas City would also need to leapfrog the Chargers in the standings to win a 10th straight division title. The Chiefs practically need to win out while the Broncos lose out and the Chargers lose every remaining game except against Denver.

Here's how the standings look as Week 13 wraps:

  1. Denver Broncos (10-2, 2-1 AFC West)
  2. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 4-0)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6, 1-2)
  4. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10, 0-4)

AFC playoff picture

The Chiefs are not in the current AFC playoff picture. They are not even the first team, nor the second, outside of the bubble. Houston has a one-game advantage over Kansas City ahead of their head-to-head matchup next week, and the Steelers hold a conference record tiebreaker over the Chiefs.

  1. Denver Broncos (10-2; AFC West leaders)
  2. New England Patriots (10-2; AFC East leaders)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, AFC South leaders)
  4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6; AFC North leaders)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, wild card No. 1)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4; wild card No. 2)
  7. Buffalo Bills (8-4, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Houston Texans (7-5); Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6); Kansas City Chiefs (6-6); Miami Dolphins (5-7); Cincinnati Bengals (4-8); New York Jets (3-9); Cleveland Browns (3-9)

Eliminated: Las Vegas Raiders (2-10); Tennessee Titans (1-11)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chiefs playoff picture: Odds, remaining schedule, AFC West standings

Reporting by Jack McKessy, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect