ANN ARBOR – The University of Michigan’s Annual Economic Outlook Conference predicts the jagged pattern of quarterly growth rates results in calendar year 2026 growth averaging 2.4 percent and just 2 percent growth in 2027.

The report also said annualized pace of real GDP growth in 2025Q3 to come in around 3.1 percent thanks to robust consumption and business fixed investment expenditures.

The pace of growth roughly halves in 2025Q4 as a rising share of tariff costs accrues to consumers, the labor market softens further, and the federal government shutdown adds drag.

Moderate tax cuts, less restrictive monetary policy, and the end of the shutdown will set the economy on a steadier growth path by early next year. The jagged pattern of quarterly growth rates results in calendar year 202

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