Best bet: SYSTEMIC CHANGE (7)

Best value: CAPT JAX PARROW (6)

FIRST: Autumn's Turn was second to a runaway winner in last; call in weak opener. Cara's Chianti was just a neck behind top pick after doing the heavy lifting up front last time; very dangerous. Paraiba Blue drops and returns to dirt; worth a look.

SECOND: Big Hat Willie gets class relief after making middle move in last; more to give. Barksdale is fresh and owns speed and fast numbers; big-time player. Metalhead is riding a three-race winning streak; must consider.

THIRD: Fourth and One drilled four times since done in by fast fractions last time; tighter today. Max Money bested top pick by three lengths when second in last; obvious threat. Tizlawry was second in debut on turf; don't dismiss.

FOURTH: Bob Joh

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