A special election for a House seat representing a district that went for Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024 has Republicans worried it may be lost as the GOP nominee chooses to distance himself from the face of the party.

According to an analysis by MS NOW’s Michael A. Cohen, Republican Matt Van Epps’ bid to fill the seat held by retired Rep. Mark Green (R) should have been a walk in the park for the GOP in the party’s bid to maintain control of the House, but Democrat Aftyn Behn has been closing the gap in recent polls.

As Cohen wrote Monday, Van Epps camp is reading the writing on the wall and has clamped down on using Trump’s endorsement as a talking point, due to the president’s plummeting popularity on multiple fronts.

“The sudden competitiveness of a special House election in a heavily gerrymandered Republican district is a good summation of Trump and the GOP’s current political freefall — and the rising political fortunes of Democrats,” Cohen went on to add that the recent wave of Democratic victories in special elections also have reflected Trump fatigue.

The analyst went on to point out that Van Epps' recent ads omit his party affiliation, which is telling in the deeply red state.

“For his part, Van Epps isn’t exactly leaning into the support he’s received from President Trump. Though the president endorsed him in a crowded primary field and appeared at a tele-rally earlier this month, Van Epps’ latest ad not only doesn’t mention Trump — it also omits his partisan affiliation. (Instead, the ad identifies Van Epps as ‘American Patriot.’)” the MS NOW report states with Cohen contributing, “Nothing says more about the toxicity of Trump and the GOP brand than a Republican candidate in an R+22 seat running away from the president and his party.”

Conceding that Behn still faces an uphill climb, Cohen predicted, “If Behn loses by six or seven points, Republicans in districts that Trump won by less than 15 points might start getting a tad nervous (for those keeping score at home, that’s 53 Republican members).”

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